Is record keeping an exhausting task when it comes to tracking your sports bets? The experienced bettors say you should use your head, not your heart when betting. But is bet tracking rocket science? No! We will explain in this guide why it is important not to let yourself get carried away by emotion when placing your bets and the importance of record-keeping as part of your betting strategy.
The Best Betting Advice: Keep a Cool Head!
Watching sports and following a team can be emotional, but it should never influence your bets. “I have a funny impression that they will lose,” or, “My instinct tells me that they can win” are thoughts you can share when you chat with your friends but in no case a basis for placing a bet.
Of course, one can be lucky and win by taking a random bet, but you must learn how to do your math on each bet you place.
The same also applies to the advice received from other people. Rather than blindly placing a bet on a prediction received from a friend of yours, verify it yourself. Do a betting analysis, and, if the numbers look good and the bet has real value, then you can decide to go for it, but never bet just because someone else told you so.
If you want to become an effective bettor and make a profit, you must keep your sports betting records week after week. Bookmakers do their best to make sure the odds are in their favor and you must work your way through to find your advantage. A badly thought out or badly placed bet could make your profits go backward. Keep your discipline!
Do Your Homework. It Always Helps
For sports betting, research is paramount, and a little bit of work can help you on the long way to find a profitable bet. Whether you’re betting on the NBA playoffs, a European soccer game, or the NFL regular season, you should always look at the stats before you get started with your hard-earned cash.
There are so many factors that can affect the outcome of a game, so you need to limit your risk as much as possible by looking at certain data. A few stats that you should always look at before a match include:
Current shape – When analyzing the current shape or the history of a team or player, make sure that you are studying a decent size sample. Check the data for at least the last ten games to get a good idea of how well your team or player has performed. From this data, you can calculate average scores, earning ratios and other important statistics to help you plan.
Comparison of data – Examining comparative data between two teams can provide interesting results. Some teams just seem to be unable to win at certain stages or against a rival. These statistics can reveal who might have a psychological advantage in the game. If the current form and past matches give a team an advantage, you can add that team to your list of possible favorites to bet on.
Strengths and Weaknesses – When looking for team statistics, you can spot certain trends or an area where a team can excel or even be vulnerable. Identifying strengths and weaknesses can be useful for many types of bets, including futures. If you spot a trend or a detail, you can often find a market to exploit this statistic.
Other things to consider – There are always other things to consider such as injuries and suspensions of key players, changes in coaches and motivational factors such as those with predictable outcomes. Always have an overview.
Always Keep Track of Your Bets!
You don’t have to be a Math expert to keep track of your bets, but the more precise your data, the more useful it will be in the future. If you take a few seconds to track the essential information on each bet you place, you will easily be able to identify your wagering strengths and weaknesses.
You can delete or modify your strategy in the markets where you regularly fail, and you can focus on the areas where you excel. Keeping your betting records well organized will also give you a reference database ready for research for your future bets.
So, what information should you be tracking? In the case of sports betting tracking, you can make your records as simple or as complex as you want, but all your betting records must contain at least the following information:
- Game information, including date, location, teams, and tournaments
- Type of bet or area of betting
- Which bookmaker did you use?
- What odds did you get?
- Probabilities • How big was the stake?
- Bet results and how much you won or lost
You can add other information such as the research you have done and why you thought you should place the bet. This will help you avoid efforts carried out with little or no research done. The more information you include, the easier it will be to analyze your victories and defeats in the future and you will be able to refine the betting strategy.
Bettors who do not keep some sort of betting record are much less likely to succeed. If you talk to any professional gambler, they will tell you that they spend a lot of their time compiling betting records and analyzing their performance.
Learn How to Spot Value
Like using multiple bookmakers to get you the best price, you can also maximize your return by learning to identify high-value bets. This requires a slightly more complex approach, but it’s something that will come naturally over time if you follow all of our other steps.
It is not always easy to calculate the value of a bet and most people assume that the odds of the bookie always represent the probability of a result, but this is not the case. A high-value bet is one where the price displayed makes the risk of the bet worth it depending on the probability of the outcome.
A rule of thumb is that where the implied probability multiplied by the odds (in decimal format) is 1.00 or more, then the bet falls in the value area – the higher the number, the better.
Chances of winning (odds): 3.00 (+200)
Calculation: 0.60 x 3.00 = 1.80
Is this a high-value bet? Yes
You may be wondering at this point how you can calculate the probability of a result so that you can use this formula. Well, this is the time when this requires some knowledge of statistics and research. By analyzing the betting history, you can quickly find out how many times the result has occurred previously and arrive at a percentage figure.
You can then take into consideration other factors such as shape or recent injuries and adjust the figure to compensate if necessary. The more research you do, the more you will learn to accurately calculate the probabilities for a range of bets.
In the example given above, the bookmaker price of +200 represents a probability of only 33.3%, but our calculation shows a probability of 60%. It is these situations where the odds have been understated by the bookie we want to identify. The greater the difference between the two values, the higher the value of the bet.
Do not worry if all this seems very complicated, after a few weeks of betting regularly, you will soon start to learn to focus on high-value bets.
Seek Your Own Methods
By becoming more and more experienced in the field, you will soon begin to plan your own betting strategies. Fortunately, you will start to make a small profit and you will slowly adapt your methods to maximize your profits and minimize your risks.
Remember that successful players rely on small, regular, high-value wins rather than big wins from small bets. Once you have this mindset and start thinking like a pro, the whole process will become second nature.
If you come up against a winning strategy, follow our advice and keep it to yourself. The best players rarely reveal their true secrets and it always pays to have a good poker face. And finally, you must remember that betting is a game in which not everyone can win.
Even professionals burn their fingers from time to time; so always do appropriate research and be sensitive to your capital. Never place a life-threatening bet.