As observations of the practice of many players show, sports betting analysis and research work when choosing future bets comes down to a quick look at the statistics of teams. They search for sports betting statistics on some popular resources, such as sports websites. In parallel with this, according to the statistics provided by the bookmakers themselves, more than 95% of the players are in the red. It is worth considering whether such superficial work on predictions and the choice of bets relate to such deplorable results. After all, it turns out that statistics become the only source of information. In this review, we consider two fundamentally different approaches. First, let’s see how beginners analyze betting statistics. We point out the reasons why this does not bring results in a long time. We focus on the reasons why naked statistics will never allow you to seriously earn on bets. Let us discuss the real place that these data should occupy in the rank of predictive factors. Well, the second approach is an analysis based on more weighty arguments than the numbers from past matches. We will reveal the “kitchen secrets”, how successful professional players work, and what they consider in their predictions.
As an example of sports betting analysis, we will consider football as the most popular sport. However, all the following arguments apply to any kind. Similar examples and trends can be found in many disciplines.
So, a novice decides to bet on some of the next soccer matches. Usually, the list of sporting events is found on betting stats websites. We will give an example of a regular betting statistics website.
When you click on a match, a tab opens. Here you will usually see the league, round or stage of the competition, as well as the names of competing teams. There are several such tabs and they change depending on whether the game is upcoming, ongoing or has ended. For a future game the information you should find is this:
- Match statistics (match information). The venue, referee, players who will miss the match.
- Offers of different bookmakers.
- History of the latest games of teams, as well as personal meetings.
When the game is about to start, the match information tab will change to the “Live Center”, where you can see the final rosters. During the game, statistics and a review of the match will be available, which reflect: possession, shots, fouls, corner, yellow and red cards, goals and so on.
The team on the left are usually the hosts, and on the right, respectively, are the guests. On this tab, you can find information, whether it is a home game, or if the home game is played at someone else’s stadium. The same can be understood by the name of the stadium and the city where the game will take place.
The name of the referee is useful only if you consider betting on yellow cards. This is not the most important factor in predicting such outcomes. However, taking the name of the referee and looking at his stats will not be superfluous.
The lists of players who will miss the match are not always reliable. As practice shows, some websites often give out irrelevant information. Some losses in the composition do not reflect, or, on the contrary, indicate that some players eventually enter the game. So, the composition must be tracked by more reliable sources.
If the match is a cup match, the second in a two-leg match, the score of the first match will be displayed on the information tab. This is useful knowledge. Often teams play on the total score and this must be considered.
The odds tab should not be of any interest at all. This is an advertisement for sportsbooks. Analyzing a game by its odds is one of the deadliest mistakes the beginners are always making. So, learn to ignore the odds. You need to analyze the odds only after you have formulated your prediction and estimated the probability of the outcome chosen for the bet. Then it will be possible to compare your prediction with the sportsbook odds and decide whether you are satisfied or not.
The H2H stats are of most interest. Here are the latest team games. You could see the last five matches of the hosts, then the same about the guests, and the history of their full-time encounters in the past. All these lists can be expanded right away to see more games. There may also be additional tabs that allow you to separately watch games at home and away.
Matches from all tournaments are listed here. The dates of matches, as well as the result for a specific team (win, draw, loss, highlighted in color), and the score of the game are indicated.
Let’s discuss the H2H stats, more. Often, beginners just look at a WDL ratio (win, draw, lose). They do not pay attention to the tournaments where these results are obtained. There should be a clear distinction between league matches, cup matches, and those in the international arena. Victories in the cup games over weak rivals from the lower leagues have a small value when evaluating the shape of the team. In a league game, a club can smash everyone, but at the level of the Champions League, for instance, they may lose completely. So, it’s not necessary to transfer the league’s success inside the predictions for the Champions League, and vice versa. Often all these results fall into one pile, which, of course, is unacceptable.
Another remark on the results that can be viewed under H2H stats. Each match is a different story. It is not enough just to look at the score and conclude who was stronger. Alas, this is exactly how inexperienced bettors simplify everything.
An important factor that beginners often miss when analyzing betting statistics is the game schedule. Firstly, you should look at the H2H stats and find out when the last games of future rivals took place. If some played more during the last week and had a few days to rest and recover, this is an occasion to add a couple of confidence points for the second team. If the break between matches was too long for a team, 10 days or more, this is, on the contrary, an occasion to assume that the team is not in the best shape.
In addition to past games, the schedule of upcoming meetings is of great importance. This is especially true for those teams that play in several tournaments. To clarify these points, click on the name of the corresponding team. The club profile tab will open. There you will find the schedule and can see with whom the upcoming games will be and what dates they are assigned. Together with past meetings, this will give you an idea of the density of the schedule and the tiredness of the players. If there is a tight schedule, then player substitution cannot be avoided. So, you can’t bet too early until the official teams for the match are announced.
It is not enough to search for information in the stats table to know about a team’s rank and current shape. You should also watch the games, even if in replay mode. Statistics serve only as an auxiliary tool to bring data into the big picture. Not only the results and scores themselves play a big role, but also how they were obtained. The composition of teams is also one of the most important factors in the analysis. Also, remember that the sportsbooks set odds according to statistics.
A smart bettor makes money because he regularly finds the advantage of more significant factors of the game and strength of the composition over the statistical trends of past meetings. What is your experience with sports betting statistics?